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Investing Ideas: Following the yellow golden bull

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  • Investing Ideas: Following the yellow golden bull

    My pick: Gold (ABX, RGLD, GG, GOLD, other mining stocks)

    The market is poised to move big one way or another. Leading commodity, shipping, and tech stocks look very bullish, however, and I am very buy-side right now even if the market continues lower. I continue to be bearish on financials, insurers, and commercial real estate. If the Fed price floor at 7800-8000 gets taken out, we probably go back to at least November lows.

    Gold is the big play. If this massive foreign currency sell-off turns out to be indication of lots of bad news in Europe, gold could continue to go up big. I am expecting a pullback soon enough, however, and the famed Cyclist at kitco forums expects the same-- a pullback soon into mid March or so. Then I will be buying in again. I bought in big last Tuesday so if we take off from here, it'll be nice as well, but we are quite extended from the 50DMA at these levels. Silver also looks great.

    Energy stocks look poised to break out, and as I have been saying, oil could begin its ascent any day. Same goes for base metals, like copper and steel.

    I expect the Baltic Dry Index to begin rising again as inflation creeps back in, and shipping stocks are a good way to play it.

    The big name tech stocks have all been basing and/or running up very nicely and that is bullish for them.

    The Fed is buying treasuries with printed money to keep rates low, even though CDS spreads are at all-time highs for US government debt. This is highly inflationary, but prevents from a sudden, sharp debt bubble collapse. For this reason, I will be selling out of TBT as soon as the charts indicate the rise in long-term interest rates is slowing as printed dollars are used to buy treasuries. This helps gold even more. Gold gold gold.

    Where are you guys investing your money or see good areas to buy into?
    Last edited by Creature; 02-17-2009, 04:49 PM.

  • #2
    As a lot of sites have been noticing, around 8pm, there was a big sell off in all major foreign currencies against the dollar. Forex is a highly liquid market so for this coordinated of a sell off means someone is liquidating and/or deleveraging trillions of foreign-denominated assets.

    I believe one of three things is occurring:
    1. a large bank is failing
    2. a foreign nation is defaulting on its debt (ireland or poland?)
    3. the Fed is offering massive foreign currency reserves as supply collateralized by printed dollars to spur foreign inflow into treasuries

    Gold, oddly enough, went up as the dollar spiked up. This tells me something big is brewing, and most likely not good.


    EDIT: GOLD up 5%, RGLD up %10. $$$$
    Last edited by Creature; 02-17-2009, 04:50 PM.

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