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  • End of US dollar dominance?

    Wow, I never started a thread on economics but this is one of those moments where saying "I told you so" seems totally appropriate.

    The US dollar currently has the status of being the world's most used reserve currency. For those of you who don't know what that means; it means the world trusts your currency enough for various reasons to accept it as a means of trade. This brings huge advantages to the state issuing the currency; the ability to borrow money cheaply and most importantly to run huge deficits without a currency collapse. However, China has sent out a message today in both Chinese and English (signalling its desire to send a message to the world) questioning the primacy of the US dollar. Taken from http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/24/wo...ia/24china.htm:

    SHANGHAI — In another indication that China is growing increasingly concerned about holding huge dollar reserves, the head of its central bank has called for the eventual creation of a new international currency reserve to replace the dollar.
    China has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, valued at nearly $2 trillion, with more than half of those holdings estimated to be made up of United States Treasuries and other dollar-denominated bonds.
    Nicholas Lardy, an economist and China specialist at the Peterson Institute in Washington, said that through its proposal, China was indicating that the dollar’s long dominance was unfair, allowing the United States to run huge deficits by borrowing from abroad, and that the risks to holders of Treasuries were growing.

    “Chinese are quite concerned that the large U.S. government deficits will eventually lead to inflation, which will erode the purchasing power of the dollar-denominated financial assets which they hold,” Mr. Lardy said. “It is a legitimate concern.”
    And now to quote myself:

    Originally posted by Nycle View Post
    Countries like China need the US to take in their products to sustain their own economic growth and will continue to accept US dollars in order to do so, but one starts to wonder for how long. The US would be doing good in adopting some fiscal sound policies in order to reverse the continuing deficits that they run every year and use the surpluses to decrease the level of outstanding debt, but in the current political climate this is easier said than done and the US continues to live beyond its means.
    What it boils down to: the US has been acting fiscally irresponsible for quite some time now and the world seemed to be just fine with it. People are having second thoughts about it now though, and if the scenario of dumping the dollar for another reserve currency is to take place then strictly, when applying the rules of capitalism, it could turn the US into a third world country over night. The thing is, the chance of the US giving up its wealth just like that to repay all of its debt is so small that even a war is more likely to happen.

    Today, Obama placed a request in several European newspapers asking European governments and other parts of the world to follow his lead into spending even more. Given the things said above, WHAT THE FUCK is he thinking? Seriously, now that the frenzy surrounding his election has largely gone away I think we can objectively judge for ourselves how good the (economic/fiscal) policies he's pushing through really are.

    Btw, this is not an America-bashing thread, it really isn't, but as a person who studied economy/business administration and recently switched majors to public administration these developments are incredibly interesting to watch. Discuss.
    Last edited by Nycle; 03-24-2009, 01:28 PM. Reason: broken link

  • #2
    Of course Obama doesn't have good financial ideas or policies, his entire financial team is made up of people who helped run Mae/Mac/Aig and other huge corporations into the ground, and his only idea on how to fix things is to go around spending more money, spend spend spend spend spend. Where the fuck is the money he wants to spend coming from, hes certainly not going to cut as much from the budget as he spends. Anyways China is pretty much right as far as what they are doing, ironically if we ended up going to war that would get us out of the depression and create tons of new jobs.
    Rabble Rabble Rabble

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    • #3
      Nycle this is old, this has been going on for more than 1 year.

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      • #4
        While I always enjoy a good scary story, let's be a bit realistic. China would not do anything to hurt the US financially because it would completely crush them. Who buys all the crap that keeps the Chinese people happy in a capitalistic-lite society? China calling in our debt? For what purpose? They would have nothing to gain and everything to lose.

        This is also a reason why a potential war with China is ridiculous (logistics being the other).

        When China isn't dependant on the US for its fiscal (and thus, political) stability, that is when you need to worry. We're quite a ways away from that.

        llater,
        Tony

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        • #5
          I think you're missing the point. It's not about China calling in on US debt, it's about China wanting to reform the world's economic system and ditch the central role that the dollar plays in it. The consequences of this would be huge for the US, the dollar, and more or less the world.

          You talk about being realistic, but ask yourself whether it's realistic that China and other countries will be prepared to finance Uncle Sam's deficits till the end of days.

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          • #6
            China is a good 15-20 years from really challenging US economic might. Fiscal policy is a lot of posturing and China believes (probably correctly) that they're in a position to exert some pressure. However, if we want to get into troubling economic futures, China far surpasses even some of the gloomier outlooks for the US economy. Their level of growth has not been sustainable and much of their population might as well live in rural India, Russia, or any other ex-Soviet state.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by genocidal View Post
              China is a good 15-20 years from really challenging US economic might. Fiscal policy is a lot of posturing and China believes (probably correctly) that they're in a position to exert some pressure. However, if we want to get into troubling economic futures, China far surpasses even some of the gloomier outlooks for the US economy. Their level of growth has not been sustainable and much of their population might as well live in rural India, Russia, or any other ex-Soviet state.
              not to mention their working population is aging and the current round of babymakers will not give them a baby boom (for some reason birthrates in China are plummeting)

              China's wealth is also not well distributed relative to the average citizen. When the Chinese middle class has more buying/investing capital then I'll start to worry.

              I used to worry about China's eminent rise to overtake the US, but now I think it will be a slow subtle process that plays out over my entire lifetime. I also think there's more to fear in India, though they happen to like the US.
              Originally posted by Tone
              Women who smoke cigarettes are sexy, not repulsive. It depends on the number smoked. less is better

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              • #8
                It's ridiculous!!! China should be happier with the USDomination than to have a foreign currency.... unless it's for the United Nations, in that case China has proven to be victorious.

                But hmm, I wonder what other countries are completely dependent on China.
                Will Thom Yorke ever cheer up? - ZeUs!!!

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                • #9
                  lol @ the nervously written responses of American's who are so obviously in denial.
                  sigpic

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                  • #10
                    We are the strongest economy in the world.

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                    • #11
                      America rules.

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                      • #12
                        Maybe they are lacking a babyboom because you can only have 1 child.
                        Maybe God was the first suicide bomber and the Big Bang was his moment of Glory.

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                        • #13
                          A quick note as a Financial Advisor in such times: We don't all have it bad. Those that make bad decisions and/or take a deal with risky folks have it bad. Those that were raised frugal have a large advantage. I feel bad for the bubble kids that had it so well growing up, did really well in school, and go to a job where they are encouraged to take ridiculous risks that pretty much put the rest of their Financial career terms on the line.

                          I grew up in shitty times. Sure I grew up learning some shitty coping tactics (I drink too much) and those that are coddled are oft taught the right way with the right education, but I'm glad I'm wasn't taught to be delusional of my talents and physical presence like some of the kids that I and my Boss hire. Low and behold my upbringing has taken me to such heights that I can care for my children and post as much as I want to from my laptop on these forums as I want. I'm sure you're all EXILERATED FROM IT!

                          On China: I have two children, but if we get our act together (read: If I get my act together mostly), we've been looking at the Chinese adopting agencies. That, or the Russian/Ukrainian/Croatian/Romanian agency. Which ever gives us the quickest and best results.
                          Last edited by PaulOakenfold; 03-25-2009, 01:15 AM.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by PaulOakenfold
                            A quick note as a Financial Advisor in such times: We don't all have it bad. Those that make bad decisions and/or take a deal with risky folks have it bad. Those that were raised frugal have a large advantage. I feel bad for the bubble kids that had it so well growing up, did really well in school, and go to a job where they are encouraged to take ridiculous risks that pretty much put the rest of their Financial career terms on the line.

                            I grew up in shitty times. Sure I grew up learning some shitty coping tactics (I drink too much) and those that are coddled are oft taught the right way with the right education, but I'm glad I'm wasn't taught to be delusional of my talents and physical presence like some of the kids that I and my Boss hire. Low and behold my upbringing has taken me to such heights that I can care for my children and post as much as I want to from my laptop on these forums as I want. I'm sure you're all EXILERATED FROM IT!

                            On China: I have two children, but if we get our act together (read: If I get my act together mostly), we've been looking at the Chinese adopting agencies. That, or the Russian/Ukrainian/Croatian/Romanian agency. Which ever gives us the quickest and best results.

                            So you are an alcoholic that wants to adopt a child from a country that doesnt have such strict regulations?
                            I... see...
                            sigpic

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Nycle View Post
                              You talk about being realistic, but ask yourself whether it's realistic that China and other countries will be prepared to finance Uncle Sam's deficits till the end of days.
                              Until something major changes, yes it's quite realistic. You do understand that the US is the sole economic superpower, right? The dollar is king.

                              Sorry to bust the scare bubble. Again, when China controls its own fiscal position in the world, you can start to worry about them. Better yet, when the world markets spiral down and countries begin buying up as much Yen as possible to support their own currency, then you can worry.

                              llater,
                              Tony

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