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TWDT2010 Championships Preview and Predictions

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  • TWDT2010 Championships Preview and Predictions

    Well here we are, the last match day of the year looms. The championships awaits. Here are a few pieces of trivia and interesting storylines going into the championship weekend:

    Top5Squad (although with all new starters) is trying to complete its bid to repeat in Dueling. If Ruby wins the Basing title, it will have beaten the top 3 squads in the league (in Basing and Overall standings) to do so. Ruby, the last team to qualify for the playoffs, has the only chance to win multiple league Championships, a feat which was not accomplished last year (despite Revenge's domination of the league). If you were to look at a bracket of the standings, Ez or Wut, Blood Choke, and Underground were all on one side of the bracket, and so only one of the three of them could make it to the Championship in each league; they have all made it to the title game in one league. Neither of the teams who earned byes advanced in the Dueling or Javelin leagues, and none of the teams who have advanced in those leagues did so without requiring at least one 3rd round. However, Blood Choke is the only squad to advance who needed 3rd rounds in both weeks. The closest Basing result in the playoffs was a margin of 5:14. If you convert that to games of the standard 15 minute winning length, it would give you a margin of 3:56. There were only 4 games of the 21 non-Emofucks total regular season games closer than that margin; this season was blowout central in Basing. The average margin of Basing victory in the playoffs (converted) is about 1 minute less than for the regular season. Less, but not substantially so (although obviously the sample size is very small).

    Hopefully I have you all a bit more interested in the Championship games after those nuggets. And so, let me now take you through the actual match-ups that will be played.

    *all team stats and records are in the specific league, ignore games against Emofucks, and include playoff games*

    Key:
    Squadname (W-L in specific league, Avg number of opponent wins for wins/losses, +/-)


    TWDT-D

    Top5Squad (6-2, 3.0/4.0, 64) vs. Blood Choke (5-3, 3.6/3.3, 11)


    Previous meeting: Week 4 - Blood Choke won 50-44.

    This is going to bug me. The scorebox from the previous meeting was one of the ones that were never posted, AND I did not watch this game personally...so I have no idea who showed up, played well, or anything. I was told that Riverside did not show for Top5Squad (but Mythril did); that is literally everything I know about the game. Perhaps someone can enlighten me and everyone in the comments of the article about the lineups and who played well/poorly.


    Probable lineups:

    Top5Squad- Mythril* (1.49), B4sERmaN94_X (1.24), Vys (1.31), Riverside (1.29), Sir Spider (1.16), Money (1.16), Rasaq (0.76), Jaa (0.70)

    Blood Choke- Vicarious (1.32), Burg (1.27), CrimsonX (1.17), Lofty (1.11), Saetep (1.09), Yakuza (1.02), Thrill (0.73), Misled (0.67)

    *Mythril says he might not be able to make the 3PM game because he has plans with his fiance. C'mon man, what's she gonna do, call off the wedding?


    Past playoff results:

    Top5Squad- Defeated Ruby 2-1 (50-44, 41-50, 50-41). Defeated Candy King 2-0 (50-29, 50-40)

    Blood Choke- Defeated Underground 2-1 (50-48, 49-50, 50-40). Defeated Ez or Wut 2-1 (46-50, 50-44, 50-36)

    Blood Choke defeated two of the tougher Dueling teams in the league to get to this point. As I mentioned earlier, both wins were in 3 rounds and had fairly close margins throughout (14 points was the largest margin of victory and the average was about 6). They also showed much better lines during the last 2 week's than in any other time of the season (which is unusual because attendance usually starts strong and then dips until it plateau's with a slight spike for the playoffs). Top5Squad, on the other hand, won the first game with some difficulty and the last game with none (average margin of victory exactly 11). Their attendance has been fairly solid all year long, with not many weeks of missing more than 2 of their top 8.


    Key Player:

    Top5Squad- Mythril. He's been an MVP candidate all year for Top5Squad. If he can't show this weekend because of a prior commitment, it will shift the entire line up a spot and force someone else to step up big. He plays very intelligently, is hard to hit, and can rush and mid-range equally well.

    Blood Choke- Burg. He only played one round before the playoffs, and it was negative (8-10). However, he has been +19 in 6 playoff rounds so far (roughly a 12-9 average) and singlehandedly won about 2 rounds (almost 3) in these playoffs so far. His radar and mid-range accuracy has been excellent, and he has stayed alive long enough to rack up high numbers of kills.


    Analysis:

    Blood Choke finished the year in the middle of the pack of Dueling teams, while Top5Squad was at the top. Still, it is hard to say that this is a David vs. Goliath matchup considering that Blood Choke won the lone meeting between these two teams in the regular season. Top5Squad should show a good lineup, but Mythril is the big question mark. On the other side, Blood Choke will need to show their best line (or at least 5 of their top 6 as they have the past 2 weeks), because otherwise you start to see a pretty big talent gulf between these two teams. Top5Squad usually plays a high pressure style, which can lead them to easy wins, but can also get them in trouble if their teaming is worse than their opponents'. Blood Choke's wins tend to be on the opposite side of the style spectrum, featuring sniping wars and an emphasis on dodging. The key will need to be Blood Choke's teaming. Can they avoid being nibbled away while backpedaling and then devoured once they are outnumbered? Or can they instead pick off the approaching enemy and keep their distance. The most recent best example of this style clash would be Thunder beating Quicksand in last year's TWL Final. Unfortunately for Blood Choke, I think that Thunder (and in this game Top5Squad) had the talent edge.


    Prediction: Top5Squad wins 2-1.
    When I stab you, you stay stabbed.

    T0MA> play like a man

  • #2
    TWDT2010 Championships Preview and Predictions

    TWDT-J

    Underground (7-1, 4.0/4.0, 89) vs. Ruby (5-3, 2.4/4.33, 45)


    Previous meeting: Week 3. Underground won 50-28.

    This was during the July 4th weekend so again I did not see the game (why are all these rematches of the 6 games I didn't see?!?!), but Ruby showed 4 of its common javelins so the score is still a little scary from their perspective. This was EvilDeed's only negative round of the year (2-10), but it was a doozy. Zidane (12-4) had probably his best round of the year for Underground in the win, and they played Violence and Ardour instead of Struck/Turban/fizzy so it could have even been worsey.


    Probable lineups:

    Underground- Waven (1.52), Zidane (1.43), Ease (1.26), Turban (1.11), Struck (0.94), Violence (0.95), I.D. (0.74), Lionheart (0.70)\

    Ruby- Not in game (1.36), Jamal (1.31), EvilDeed (1.27), Raples (1.09), 24 (0.97), Draft (0.84), Paradise (0.84), Chance (0.75)

    Both lineups would probably love a fizzy or Cape sighting respectively, but those aren't likely enough for me to include them in the list.


    Past playoff results:

    Ruby- Defeated Top5Squad 2-1 (45-50, 50-47, 50-31). Defeated Candy King 2-0 (50-43, 50-29)

    Underground- Defeated Blood Choke 2-0 (50-40, 50-40). Defeated Ez or Wut 2-1 (36-50, 50-43, 50-35)

    Ruby (as shown above in its average opponent win total) has had a pretty easy road to this final. Top5Squad played well in the first 2 rounds of that game, but Ruby were big favorites. Candy King just had a terrible day last weekend and their games against Ruby were no exception. They've raised their +/- by about 50 points since the playoffs started though, which indicates that even though they had an easy road, they are taking care of business and got their mojo going. Underground seemed a little lackadaisical against Blood Choke in the first week and that carried over to the first round of the Ez or Wut game. However, they've got Ease who really impressed me in game 2 with his Michael Jordan-esque "There's no effin way we are losing this series" performance. His teammates took over in round 3, but they have to hope they come out playing like round 3 on Sunday.

    Key Player:

    Underground- Waven. He's obviously a very good player, but beyond that what makes him key is that he has not been here the last 3 weeks after showing up fairly steadily. He's been online recently though and Ease says he should be here this weekend. Underground generally has enough talented javs to survive without him, but for the finals you want to play the lineup that earned your regular season domination, and they've looked shaky in the playoffs without him.

    Ruby- Jamal. Ruby's do-everything 2nd overall pick has been key in their 4 playoff Javelin and Basing wins. He did not play much javelin in the regular season due to the limitations of the 3-league rule (specifically because Ruby's WBs didn't show much), but he's been +11 in the 2 games this post-season, which is the 2nd best on the team after EvilDeed. He needs to keep up his strong play to in order for Ruby to keep up with Underground.


    Analysis:

    While my Javelin watching is not quite sophisticated enough to be able to tell you the strengths and weaknesses of the teaming and/or play-styles of these teams, it's not hard to see that previous matchup, Underground's season +/-, and their season record. Underground is fairly clearly the favorite in this game, but that does not mean we can write off Ruby. Draft has gotten his javs to show up all-year long, and they actually have a slight advantage by making the Basing finals also, which ensures that some of their players have a little extra motivation to be here. Adding Jamal into the lineup in the playoffs has given them even better depth, which I think is the big area that Ruby has an advantage over Underground. Not in game was not here last week, and he's had a great season this year. I just talked about Ruby's depth so I can't say it would be a necessity to have him here on Sunday, but it sure would be a boon to Ruby's chances if he were. Underground, on the other hand, has a pretty firm starting five at this point. If they are all there, Underground is very hard to beat (and it has not actually happened yet). The only weakish link on the line is Struck, who has been very hot or cold this year. If he's cold, Ruby has a much better chance of taking home the title. However, I think he might come up big tomorrow...

    Prediction: Underground wins 2-0.



    TWDTB coming tomorrow ([x] And this time I mean it).
    Last edited by Black Mage; 08-20-2010, 04:35 AM.
    When I stab you, you stay stabbed.

    T0MA> play like a man

    Comment


    • #3
      Very good read, you have fleshed out the teams and circumstances very nicely
      Awesome> i'm 20.. and definately bigger than you... where do you live, if i ever take a vacation there i'll come beat you up 7:Ripper> hahah
      7:destroy> he'll come to smash you with his keyboard
      7:death row> lol keyboard. must be thug =(((
      7:LofTy> Rofl Drow

      Sika> 5:Rich> i went bowling with lofty irl

      death row> just throw in a disclaimer: drunk lofty, cannot be responsible for drunk lofty's opinion.

      Comment


      • #4
        Twdtb

        TWDT-B

        Ez or Wut (5-2, 3.2/3.5, 10.17) vs. Ruby (3-5, 4.0/4.0, 11.19)
        *Note, one of Ez or Wut's losses was a 7v8 game against Gypsy Humpers.


        Previous meeting: Week 1. Ez or Wut won 15:00-3:38.

        It's hard to take much from this game way back in Week 1. I mean, a2m even showed up to shark for Ez or Wut that week. Ruby was also struggling to find it's rhythm and best line, and they are playing 10x better now than they were then. Ez or Wut actually had a pretty similar line in that game to what they expect to have on Sunday.


        Probable lineups:

        Ez or Wut: Terr- Dreamwin, Shark- Tabarnak!!!/Creature, Spid- Glavitik/Hellkite/Sakke/NL>Trigger/hypocrit/Zizzo, Spec- Raspi (bird)/Zizzo

        Ruby: Terr- Draft, Shark- Dwopple/Project Dragon/Raples, Spid- Jamal/Anidalife/Sphinx/Solacer/Spezza <TW>/Raples, Spec- FP<ER> (bird)/Cape (jav)


        Past playoff results:

        Ez or Wut- Defeated Underground 20:00-14:46.

        Ruby- Defeated Top5Squad 20:00-6:38. Defeated Candy King 20:00-11:25.

        Ruby's path to this Championship game has been the hardest possible schedule. They defeated the top 2 basing squads, who only had 1 loss combined coming into the playoffs (disregarding the game they played each other). That one loss was to Ez or Wut of course. Ruby played very well in both games, although neither opponent had an ideal line on. Ez or Wut won another fairly close game against Underground last week after their bye the week before. They've won 3 in a row now in basing against pretty good or very good teams.


        Key Player:

        Ez or Wut- Creature. It's not a coincidence that Ez or Wut's recent success began when Creature began showing up and Ez or Wut found a strong 2nd shark to pair with Tabarnak!!!. He'll need to continue his strong play to protect Dreamwin and their strong spider corps. If he doesn't show, Ez or Wut does not have any great options for the second shark.

        Ruby- FP <ER>. Just like Creature, when he appeared for Ruby, they started winning. He almost single-handedly defeated Top5Squad 2 weeks ago with his TeKs, which forced them to react to him instead of playing to their own strengths. It will be an interesting side battle when he goes up against one of the best basebirds in the game in Raspi for the Championship.


        Analysis:

        This might be the most evenly matched of the three league Championships this week. In a way, both teams are a lot alike. They both had one solid shark and a rotating stable of others for most of the season, but seem to have settled on two in the playoffs. Both squads have used a basebird to great effect. Dreamwin and Draft are the team captains and starting terriers, and both are regarded as ok but not amazing in terms of skill. As far as spiders go though, Jamal on Ruby is probably in a tier of his own. Glavitik and hellkite are both good too for Ez or Wut, and I wouldn't be surprised if the difference in the match is whose spider unit 1-4 plays best. I don't think I've given him credit anywhere for it yet, but Draft deserves some for deciding to play Sphinx (he subbed him in shortly into the start of the Top5Squad game), who has played very well the last 2 games. That brings me to my next point: Ruby has pretty ridiculous depth; Cape, Raples, and Spezza <TW> were sitting on the sidelines watching last week, and Scoop shows up occasionally (although he hasn't played well in Basing this year). They would all have started for most teams in the league. I can only speculate, but I assume that both squads see terrier as a bit of a weakness on the other side they hope to exploit. If either Draft or Dreamwin play out of their minds, it could really alter the outcome of this match. Ruby lost a bunch of close games in the regular season, but appears to be on a roll now...

        Prediction: Ruby wins 20:00-12:00.
        When I stab you, you stay stabbed.

        T0MA> play like a man

        Comment


        • #5
          very great read, BM. You really put some effort to these, appreciate it.
          Season 12 champion TWLD / TWLJ
          Season 18 champion TWLJ / TWLB
          Season 19 champion TWLB (C)

          Season 6 champion TWDT-J TWDT-B (C)
          Season 10 champion TWDT-J (C)
          Season 11 champion TWDT-B (C)
          Season 13 champion TWDT-B (C)
          Season 17 TRIPLE CROWN TWDT (C)

          The winningest TWDT captain of all time

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          • #6
            Good read, but u better not put me on your NOT list ( HOT OR NOT ), cause i wont show for the finals. i could have shown but i would have lost 145$ irl. am i making the right choice? :greedy:
            4:TABARNAK!!!> TABARNAK!!> ?help general aladeen is the best staffer ive ever encountered in my journey
            (zreqdf)>is he forcing u 2 say that?

            4:General Aladeen> oder man.. i checked ur warnings once and my laptop nearly fried

            Comment


            • #7
              3/3 even the games right for Jav and WB, off by 5 minutes in basing (I blame Tabarnak!! for that). I drunkenly passed out through the games, so someone should write the Hot or Not for me this week.
              When I stab you, you stay stabbed.

              T0MA> play like a man

              Comment

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