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TWDT-B PLAYOFFS PREDICTION: Patouf vs. Silence

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  • TWDT-B PLAYOFFS PREDICTION: Patouf vs. Silence

    The Quarter-Finals feature what should be one of the best basing games of the year, between two unabashedly stacked squads who're gunning for the title, and one of whom will likely, at the very least, reach the finals.

    Stayon's Patouf hasn't lost a real game this season, despite being 5-2. They got flag-juped in a 15-13 win over Blooms, who went 7-0, and in Coach Popovich-style, Stayon intentionally torpedoed his WEEK 7 basing match vs. Silence, playing 5 lancs, to not give away his hand and to prevent giving Silence any real confidence going into the match.

    Silence, on the other hand, got decimated early in the season, and only turned things around with a perhaps overly generous late-season Free Agency pick in acquiring diakka. Here are their expected lineups, but keep in mind both sides have a lot of versatility (and I'm not sure who's starting between nanto/Siaxis and Bacon/Mikes.) Trasher could end up terring for Heaven, or Mcvicar spidering instead of sharking, benching Bacon and slotting in WAR at ship 8, so this is only one possible lineup matchup, but perhaps the most likely:

    Click image for larger version

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    Both squads are powered by pairs of TWLB Finals' starters, with solid 7s in the middle, and value low-star players hidden under. Bueno is perhaps the best 6-Star spider in the game (although I'd make a case for Rasaq and TheWadoRooster), while nanto is also excellent value, and can also shark. Boblemoche is the strongest 5-Star outside of Power's Wazzaaa, although Lasenza is definitely a mediocre spider at that position, giving Patouf a tangible edge.

    Both also tend to play high-star TWLB sharks, with the major difference being porkjet and ph lead the league in kills and teks, and are the most aggressive players in the game, while Mcvicar/Commodo have some of the best RPD and shark timing, representing a battle between defensive and offensive sharks, which should be interesting to watch. This definitely plays into Patouf's favor, in my opinion, as it doesn't challenge Heaven in terr and force him to choke, giving him more chances to simply play ultra-safe and aim for a 27-1.

    Oder, on the other hand, has been the most aggressive terrier in TWDT this season, averaging a whopping 55 kills per 30 minutes, although I'm not sure how effective this will be vs ph and porkjet, who love mines/shrap, and taking down overly forward terrs.

    Since this is a 20 minute game, there is plenty of time for changes. If Silence is short on spider power, they can swap WAR in and spider mcvicar, and if Heaven is playing poorly they can terr Trasher and sub Siaxis or nanto into spider. It should be interesting how this game plays out with a ton of basing talent on both sides, veteran Dice caps who know each other well, and their seasons on the line.

    This could definitely go either way, but if I had to choose, I would give the edge to Patouf, winning 20:00-18:53. Bueno is a significantly better 6-Star spider than Lasenza, Sprained is a stronger spider at 7-Star than Mikes or Bacon, Oder's aggressive style doesn't match-up well against ph/porkjets Tek-happy aggressiveness, their lineup is more active in TWBD, and by hiding Heaven in terr they gain more overall spider power, and is a good fit vs. more defensive sharks. It should be an excellent game either way, and both teams should have good chances to advance and take on Thunder in the semi-finals.

    I will be recording the game and posting it to forums on Sunday.


    Good luck to both teams!
    Last edited by ogron; 04-11-2015, 02:32 PM.
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  • #2
    Very nice writeup Claus, however wouldn't label me and Commodo as 'defensive' sharks, normally quite the opposite if we have the agressive spiders who turn up.

    Will be a pleasure to vs the great ph, i may get a couple of kills on him...OR JUST ONE.
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    • #3
      Originally posted by McVicar View Post
      Very nice writeup Claus, however wouldn't label me and Commodo as 'defensive' sharks, normally quite the opposite if we have the agressive spiders who turn up.

      Will be a pleasure to vs the great ph, i may get a couple of kills on him...OR JUST ONE.
      Thanks. Ya perhaps I didn't phrase it as well as I could have, although it presents a clearer and more exciting narrative (offensive vs. defensive). Perhaps it would be more accurate to say you and Commodo are more traditional sharks and closer to the mean in terms of a balance between being defensive and offensive -- obviously if you're given time and space you'll be aggressive and punish the enemy.

      It might be more accurate to say ph is an outlier and more willing to gamble and sacrifice timing/safety to go for big plays (he loves to do this during cram break, and will rep for himself more than for the spids and try to find a gap to bomb) and racks up huge numbers in terms of kills and teks, while porkjet is more balanced but is one of the best shrapnel aimers in the game and isn't shy about bombing/mining.

      I could be wrong, of course, since shark is the one ship I don't really play that often, and have less appreciation of the nuances. Either way, it should be a fantastic match
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